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Page 6 of 8  Original Research



                                       Eastern Cape  Free State  Gauteng  KwaZulu-Natal  Limpopo  Mpumalanga  North West  Northern Cape
                                       Not indicated  Western Cape
                  500

                  450
                  400
                Prevalence rate of HIV or AIDS  300
                  350



                  250
                  200
                  150
                  100

                   50
                    0
                        2005     2006    2007     2008    2009     2010    2011    2012     2013    2014     2015
                                                                  Year
              HIV or AIDS, human immunodeficiency virus or acquired immunodeficiency syndrome.
              FIGURE 5: Prevalence rate of human immunodeficiency virus or acquired immunodeficiency syndrome patients per 1000 medical scheme beneficiaries in different
              provinces of South Africa from 2005 to 2015.

              The incidence rate of new HIV or AIDS cases in the < 6 years   South Africa are few. Human immunodeficiency virus and
              age group declined from 1.71/1000 in 2006 to 1.51/1000 in   ART studies in developed regions, for instance, the United
              2015. Incidence rates in the age group  ≥  6 and < 12 years   Kingdom  and Australia, 12,13  seldom provide an adequate
              remained similar: < 1/1000 beneficiaries in 2006 and 1.1/1000   comparator arm as patients, healthcare systems and
              in 2015, whilst rates in the ≥ 12 and < 18 years and the ≥ 18   individual circumstances are too dissimilar. The results of
              and < 40 years age groups increased marginally. The highest   this study do nonetheless indicate that both incidence and
              increase occurred in the ≥ 40 – ≤ 60-year age group: 8–18/1000   prevalence rates of SA-PLWH who claimed  ART through
              new HIV or AIDS cases. A large increase was also recorded in   PBM company have increased over the last decade.
              the ≥ 60 and < 70 years age group: 4–11/1000. The age group   Specifically, the prevalence rate of HIV or AIDS increased by
              ≥ 70 years recorded the lowest HIV or AIDS incidence rate,   > 3.3 times and the incidence rate by 2.3 times in this
              that is, less than 1/1000 medical scheme beneficiaries in 2006   population. These results correlate well with the general data
              and 2015. The intermittent ‘spikes’ in the incidence rate are   reported by the SA-CMS that confirm the following annual
              an  artefact  created  by  changes  in the  overall  numbers  of   increase in HIV prevalence rates in the managed healthcare
              contributing schemes.                                 sector: 15.36/1000 beneficiaries in 2011, 17.31/1000 in 2015
                                                                    and 22.08/1000 in 2016. 8,9,14
              Beneficiary–prevalence data per province are presented in
              Figure 5. The highest HIV or AIDS prevalence rate was noted   Our data confirm the preponderance of females over
              in Gauteng at 372.9/1000 in 2005. This increased to 422.4/1000   males – certainly a consequence of the generalised character
              in 2015. A decline in prevalence rate was noted in KwaZulu-  of HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. Our results mirror
              Natal: from 140.4/1000 in 2005 to < 118.4 in 2015. The recorded   the results of public sector. 15,16  Yet the results also suggest
              prevalence amongst beneficiaries increased in both Northern   that the female predominance of earlier incidence studies –
              Cape and the Free State, 15.9–23.5/1000 from 42.6–65.5/1000,   a fact that is visible in our data from 2005 to 2009 (Table 1) –
              respectively, in 2015. Prevalence rates have increased in   has begun to narrow and at times show reverse trend. Is the
              Mpumalanga but decreased modestly in the North West,   SA HIV epidemic gradually changing and perhaps entering
              Limpopo and the Eastern Cape.
                                                                    a new phase? Alternatively, is the nature of employment
              Discussion                                            in  the  SA  private sector  currently favouring  a greater
                                                                    representation of males? Answers to these questions are
              This study aimed to identify changes in the SA HIV or AIDS   currently unclear.
              incidence and prevalence rates in a population that was
              covered by private medical schemes between 2005 and 2015.  With regard to age, the following points are made.
                                                                    Representation of HIV in the youngest groups, namely,
              Studies determining both incidence and prevalence rates   0–12 years is low. The fact that the prevalence has fallen
              of  HIV or AIDS in the medical schemes environment in   steadily in the 6–12-year age group as well is testimony to

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