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Page 2 of 3  Scientific Letter


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              regions.  Remedial action has been required by countries and   the end of September 2020, the number of COVID-19 cases in
              stakeholders.                                         Africa has approached a million and a half with nearly 35 000
                                                                    deaths.  A WHO modelling study projects that the number of
                                                                         15
              National response during                              COVID-19 cases in the first year of the pandemic in Africa will
              coronavirus disease 2019                              reach between 29 and 44 million and of this between 190 000
                                                                    and 290  000 will die.  These data suggest a continuous
                                                                                      16
              The Egyptian NAP has taken steps to support PLHIV     reappraisal of the effects of COVID-19 by African government
              during  the COVID-19 epidemic. These include prolonging   and the possible ART shortages.
              ARV-dispensing  intervals  beyond  a month,  strengthening
              teleconsultation services, ensuring ongoing follow-up of   Key challenges (Figure 1)
              COVID-19-infected PLHIV and assisting with their admission   Overlapping challenges that may affect the ARVs supply chain:
              to isolation hospitals and subsequent care. Since the start of
              the pandemic and the confirmation of Egypt’s first COVID-19   •  Countries’ lockdown measures
              case in February 2020,  a ‘partial-lockdown’ model has   •  Economic challenges because of the reduction or stoppage
                                 10
              allowed continued access to medication via a medicines   of all the economic activities
              stockpile, the government’s cargo fleet and airline support.   •  The subsequent decrease in  API and intermediate
              These measures protect Egypt from exposure to a significant   pharmaceutical ingredients’ production capacities lead to
              stockout or delayed ARV access.                         increased API costs
                                                                    •  Slow shipments and reduced access to medicines.
              Africa between the hammer of
              HIV and the anvil of coronavirus                      Key solutions
              disease 2019                                          With the easing of the lockdown measures the following
                                                                    solutions are surfacing:
              Africa has a large HIV burden: ongoing new HIV infections,   •  Alternative procurement sources and long-term
              approximately 500 000 HIV-related deaths in 2018 and at least   forecasting plans to enhance drug stocking
                                               11
              a third of PLWH still not accessing  ART.  Multiple factors   •  Manipulating different ways of shipping
              have undermined the continent’s ability to end the HIV   •  Resource mobilisation and the waiving of national taxes
              epidemic. Some of these factors are persisting civil wars, tribal   to maintain stable pricing levels
              conflicts, natural disasters, poor health systems and weak   •  Support from global funding agencies and concerned
                         12
              infrastructure.  These factors have created an ART coverage-  UN agencies.
              gap of 59% in Eastern and Southern Africa, 79% in Western
              and Central Africa and 89% in North Africa.  This situation   The African Medicine
                                                 13
              has worsened subsequent to the COVID-19 epidemic.     Agency Treaty
              Nonetheless a number of North African countries have low
              HIV prevalence rates, namely less than 0.1% and have been   The  establishment  of  the  African  Medicine  Agency
                                                          14
              ‘protected’ from these COVID-19-related ART problems.  At   (AMA) Treaty may assist countries in Africa cope with




                                                Increase                                         Drug stock
                                   Countries    API costs                             GFATM
                                   lockdown                                         Extra-funding
                                   measures

                                                        Produc on
                                                        sites closure                            Mul -faceted
                                            Economic     (China)                                resilient country
                                Increase     crisis                                               ac ons
                                                                                        UN
                               shipment                                               agencies
                                 costs
                                                  Produc on sites
                                      Supply chain  low opera on
                • Domes c funding and taxes  slow    (India)
                   waiving                                                                       • Alterna ve API sources
                • Long term forecast   movement                                                  • Alterna ve shipment ways





              API, active pharmaceutical ingredients; GFATM, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria.
              FIGURE 1: Challenges and solutions in the medication supply chain under coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic.

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